[BGB] pakistan -

[michael.cartine at thomson.com]

*                                 Judgment Time for Musharraf 


 

Pakistani lawyers rallied after the country's top judge was suspended.
(AP/Anjum Naveed)

Updated: March 19, 2007

Prepared by: 

Carin Zissis <http://www.cfr.org/bios/12223/carin_zissis.html> 

 

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's decision to suspend the country's
chief justice poses a potential crisis for a leader torn between
domestic and international pressures. Musharraf indefinitely removed
Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (IHT)
<http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/15/news/pakistan.php>  from office
for abuse of power, but opponents claim the move was aimed at silencing
an outspoken judge before a series of election-year cases challenging
the president's authority. Appointed by Musharraf in 2005, Chaudhry
increasingly strayed from the government line in human rights cases.
Hundreds of lawyers protested Chaudhry's suspension in front of
Islamabad's Supreme Court over what they say is an unconstitutional
suspension, and several judges have resigned (BBC)
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6466331.stm> . In an unlikely
alliance, members of Pakistan's conservative Islamist coalition joined
the secular opposition in demonstrations, leading to the arrest of the
coalition's leader. As protests broke out (Times of London)
<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article1525832.ece>
in other cities, Musharraf's presidential predecessor Rafiq Tarar was
arrested at a Lahore rally. 

The domestic turmoil does not bode well for Musharraf, who seized
control in a bloodless 1999 coup. During a Saturday speech, Musharraf
attempted to shift the blame (Australian)
<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21411588-2703,00.htm
l>  to Prime Minister Shaukut Aziz, saying Chaudhry's suspension was
based on written recommendation from the premier. The Khaleej Times says
the president is "visibly rattled
<http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/subcontine
nt/2007/March/subcontinent_March745.xml&section=subcontinent&col=>  by
the public response and is anxiously watching the situation slipping out
of control." The intelligence analysis website Stratfor predicts: "Once
the dust settles, Musharraf will lose sovereignty
<http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=285920> ,
whether he continues to rule or not, and the military will be forced to
share political power with civilian institutions."  

During a September 2006 speech <http://www.cfr.org/publication/11540/>
at CFR, Musharraf said governing Pakistan is "labeled by some as one of
the most difficult jobs in the world." This challenge was magnified
after 9/11, and the president has used the loyalty of the army to help
sustain his domestic support as a counterbalance to what his critics see
as acquiescence to Washington. Under U.S. pressure, Islamabad in 2003
deployed some eighty thousand troops to Pakistan's tribal areas
<http://www.cfr.org/publication/11973/> , the region bordering
Afghanistan. While attacks by extremists claimed the lives of Pakistani
soldiers, the troop presence has failed to stop the rise of the Taliban
and al-Qaeda in the tribal areas, or incursions across the border into
Afghanistan. 

In a move to end the bloodshed, Pakistan signed agreements with
militants in North and South Waziristan that were roundly described by
critics as surrender to militants. As CFR Senior Fellow Daniel Markey 
tells Bernard Gwertzman <http://www.cfr.org/publication/12720/> ,
Pakistan's military and intelligence services "question how reasonable
it is to shift gears so quickly and turn against individuals who were
once allies." Since the Waziristan deals, suicide bombers
<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/14/world/asia/14pakistan.html>  have
begun to strike beyond the semiautonomous tribal areas in places such as
Peshawar, the New York Times recently reported. 

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney made a surprise visit
<http://www.cfr.org/publication/12716/>  to Pakistan to press for
results against extremists. Press reports said implicit in his message
was the threat that Washington could retract the $300 million
<http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/rls/iab/2007/html/60200.htm>  pledged to
support counterterrorism efforts in President Bush's 2008 budget request
if the Pakistani government failed to respond. U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State Richard Boucher followed up Cheney's trip with a visit to
Islamabad to announce a U.S. pledge of $750 million over the next five
years for economic development (AHN)
<http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7006762611>  in the tribal
areas. But as Craig Cohen and Derek Chollet of the Center for Strategic
and International Studies write in the spring issue of the Washington
Quarterly, "It is worth asking whether U.S. policy has reached its
limits and if it is now being guided more by inertia than
strategy.Washington's close alliance with Musharraf may now have run its
course <http://www.twq.com/07spring/index.cfm?id=244> ."

 

 

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